BusinessWire
Smartly announced a letter of intent to purchase INCRMNTAL, the AI‑driven incrementality measurement solution, in a deal that could reshape how advertisers blend performance data with media planning.
Smartly, the cloud‑based advertising platform that lets brands orchestrate campaigns across social, advertising platform, search, and connected TV, disclosed on Tuesday that it has entered a letter of intent to acquire INCRMNTAL. The target, a relatively new player in the ad‑tech ecosystem, specializes in AI‑based incrementality measurement that delivers continuous, channel‑agnostic insights without relying on user‑level identifiers or forced experiments.
The move signals Smartly’s intention to deepen its analytics stack, positioning the combined offering as a single source of truth for marketers who need to justify spend in an environment where privacy regulations and cookie deprecation have eroded traditional attribution models.
“With INCRMNTAL, Smartly enables marketers to connect what’s happening in their business outcomes in real time with how they optimize media, creative, and campaigns, so they can see performance as it happens and take immediate action.” – Laura Desmond, CEO, Smartly
Desmond’s statement underscores the strategic focus: bridging the gap between raw performance data and actionable media decisions. By embedding INCRMNTAL’s incremental lift signals directly into Smartly’s planning and optimization engine, advertisers could theoretically reallocate budgets on the fly, favoring tactics that demonstrably move the needle on revenue or other key business outcomes.
Why Incrementality Matters More Than Ever
The shift toward privacy‑first advertising has forced many vendors to abandon pixel‑based tracking in favor of aggregated, probabilistic methods. While marketing mix modeling (MMM) and multi‑touch attribution (MTA) remain staples for post‑hoc analysis, they often lack the granularity and timeliness required for day‑to‑day media buying.
INCRMNTAL’s “always‑on” methodology sidesteps these limitations by monitoring natural fluctuations in campaign activity. Rather than imposing hold‑outs, pausing spend, or launching controlled experiments, the platform leverages statistical patterns in the data stream to isolate the incremental impact of each marketing action. This approach promises a more continuous view of lift, which could be especially valuable for brands operating across fast‑moving channels such as social commerce and premium CTV.
The Technical Edge: AI‑Powered, No‑User‑Data Required
At its core, INCRMNTAL employs AI‑driven machine‑learning models that ingest aggregated performance metrics—impressions, spend, conversion rates—and compare them against baseline expectations derived from historical behavior. By continuously recalibrating its predictions, the system can flag deviations that suggest true incremental contribution, all without ever accessing personally identifiable information.
This privacy‑first stance aligns with the broader industry push toward cookieless measurement. It also reduces the operational overhead associated with setting up and managing traditional lift studies, which often require coordination across multiple data sources and strict compliance checks.
Integration Path: From Insight to Action
Smartly’s platform already supports real‑time bidding, creative optimization, and cross‑channel budget allocation. The planned integration would feed INCRMNTAL’s lift calculations directly into Smartly’s decision engine, allowing marketers to adjust bids, reallocate spend, or tweak creative assets based on live performance signals.
In practical terms, a brand could see that a particular CTV spot is delivering a higher incremental lift than a comparable social ad, prompting an immediate shift in budget. Conversely, if a campaign’s incremental contribution wanes, the system could automatically lower its priority, preserving overall efficiency.
“Marketing leaders today are demanding better measurement for performance and accountability,” Desmond added. “Incrementality is becoming increasingly important in a world where traditional approaches are challenged to move at the speed of AI and the changing consumer journey.”
Competitive Landscape: Where Does This Fit?
The ad‑tech market already hosts a handful of incrementality solutions, many of which rely on controlled experiments or hybrid models that blend MMM with digital attribution. Companies such as Google and Meta have introduced their own lift testing tools, but these are typically tied to their own inventory and require user‑level data.
INCRMNTAL’s differentiation lies in its platform‑agnostic design and its emphasis on continuous, aggregated analysis. By joining forces with Smartly, the combined offering could appeal to agencies and brands seeking a vendor‑neutral, privacy‑compliant measurement layer that plugs directly into their media execution workflow.
Potential Business Impact
- Enhance client retention – By delivering measurable ROI in near real‑time, advertisers may be less likely to switch platforms.
- Increase average revenue per user (ARPU) – Premium analytics features often command higher subscription tiers.
- Broaden market reach – Agencies managing large, multi‑brand portfolios could find the integrated solution attractive for its scalability.
- Strengthen data privacy compliance – Offering a measurement method that does not depend on cookies may become a selling point in regulated markets.
The synergy also opens the door for Smartly to develop new product modules, such as automated budget reallocation dashboards or AI‑driven creative recommendations based on incremental lift trends.
Challenges Ahead
Merging two technology stacks is rarely straightforward. Ensuring data consistency, maintaining low latency for real‑time signals, and preserving the integrity of AI models during the transition will require careful engineering. Moreover, the combined solution must demonstrate clear value over existing best‑in‑class tools to justify the integration cost for enterprise clients.
Another consideration is market perception. While the press release frames the deal as a “letter of intent,” the final terms and timeline remain undisclosed. Stakeholders will be watching for any regulatory scrutiny, especially given the growing attention on data aggregation practices.
Industry Outlook
The push toward privacy‑first, AI‑driven measurement is unlikely to slow down. As third‑party cookies fade and legislation tightens, advertisers will increasingly rely on aggregated, model‑based insights. Solutions that can deliver these insights in a timely, actionable format—without sacrificing compliance—are poised to become core infrastructure for modern media buying.
Smartly’s acquisition of INCRMNTAL could be viewed as a microcosm of a larger trend: ad‑tech companies consolidating measurement and execution capabilities to offer end‑to‑end platforms. If successful, the integration may set a benchmark for how incremental lift data can be woven directly into the fabric of campaign optimization.
Bottom Line
Smartly’s intention to acquire INCRMNTAL represents a strategic effort to fuse real‑time, AI‑powered incrementality measurement with its existing media planning and execution suite. By doing so, the company aims to give marketers a more immediate view of which tactics are truly moving the needle, enabling faster, data‑driven decisions in a privacy‑constrained landscape. The industry will be watching how the two technologies meld and whether the combined offering can deliver on its promise of tighter alignment between measurement and media spend.
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